Connector Industry Forecast By Aarkstore Enterprise

In addition to the detailed forecasts for each region of the world (North America, Europe, Japan, China, Asia Pacific, ROW), an industry overview is included which provides current market trends, industry book-to-bill ratios, and outlook narrative. Actual results are provided for the years 2006, and 2007. Forecasts include the years 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Five-year Compound Annual Growth Rates (2007-2012) are also included. World GDPs are slowing, especially in the U.S. Economists are forecasting a two percentage point drop in world GDP growth in 2008 and 2009. Semiconductor sales are not very strong, and the SIA has lowered their 2008 forecast from +7.7 percent to +4.4 percent. Stock markets are declining, generally a predictor of future business conditions. Inflation is rising, caused by high oil prices and rising costs of raw materials. Unemployment is rising, home values have declined, and consumer confidence is low. Consumer spending in the U.S. was good in June because the tax rebate checks began to work through the economy. Future months are expected to be less robust. Federal Reserve interest rates are low, but unlikely to be lowered further because of the threat of inflation. Financial institutions continue to struggle through liquidity problems caused by sub-prime home loan defaults. The U.S. automotive market is declining, with vehicle sales recently off by double digits. It seems inevitable that these trends will have a negative effect on consumer spending and capital investments by manufacturing companies. Our forecast assumes that a downturn has already started. If this is accurate, how far will business conditions erode, and what will be the duration of the down business cycle? Here is how we see the next 18 months: Softer business conditions will begin in 3Q08, with connector sales flat to growth of low single digits (range = 0 percent to +4 percent). 4Q08 will result in connector sales declining in year-over-year comparisons, or, on the positive side, being flat (range = -4 percent to 0 percent). The downturn will continue in the first half of 2009, with sales growth flat to very low single-digit growth. The second half of 2009 will begin to improve with sales increases in the mid-single-digits in 3Q09, and growth of +6.0 percent to 8.0 percent in 4Q09. Improvements in the fourth quarter of 2009 will be the result of easier comparisons, and the beginning of somewhat better business conditions. The above scenario places the looming business down cycle at approximately 10-12 months, during which connector sales will be essentially flat to growth of +4 percent. The last down cycle in the connector industry began in October 2004 and lasted for 17 months before double-digit sales increases were again achieved. For more information, kindly visit : http://www.aarkstore.com/reports/Connector-Industry-Fore ...


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