New Market Research Report: Russia Tourism Report Q4 2010

Official data show a 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall in foreign visitor arrivals in 2009 to 20.8mn, following weak growth during 2006-2008. There were large falls in the number of visitors from key source countries outside the former Soviet Union such as Poland (-44% y-o-y), Italy (-15%) and the UK (-13%). Outbound Russian departures also fell by an estimated 9% y-o-y in 2009. The most recent official data, for Q110, appear to show that the decline in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia has bottomed out, with only a marginal fall y-o-y. Unsurprisingly, growth in the number of arrivals from major markets outside the former Soviet Union was generally poor. Although arrivals from Germany and Italy increased by 3% and 7% y-o-y respectively, there was negative growth in visitors from Finland, China, Poland, the US and the UK.

Heatwave And Wildfires

A factor likely to undermine recovery in tourist arrivals in 2010 is the heatwave across the country, accompanied by wildfires, which have aggravated pollution levels in major cities. With many planes grounded, several foreign governments are advising citizens not to travel to Russia, and cafes, restaurants and shops have been forced to close due to the heavy smoke, so livelihoods are likely to be threatened.

Moscow Aircraft Hijacking Foiled

In July 2010, the authorities detained a man in Moscow who they believe tried to hijack a plane flying to the capital's Domodedovo International Airport from the North Caucasus spa town of Mineralnye Vody.

Terrorist Attacks In North Caucasus

Russia continues to suffer from terrorist attacks, which is damaging to international tourism. In May 2010, a bomb killed at least eight people and injured at least 40 outside a concert hall in Stavropol, southern Russia. In August, at least 20 people were injured after a car bomb exploded outside a cafe in the spa town of Pyatigorsk, in the North Caucasus. A day earlier, there was a suicide bombing at a checkpoint in North Ossetia, killing one officer and injured several others.

Forecast Scenario

Although we forecast a broad economic recovery in key source markets in 2010, we have edged down our forecast for foreign visitor arrivals and now expect the number to be largely unchanged this year. As regards the eurozone, our growth forecasts stand at 1.1% and 1.4% (downgraded from 1.6%) in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Growth in arrivals over the forecast period through to 2014 is also expected to be subdued, partly due to anticipated appreciation of the Russian rouble.

Aeroflot

Following a fall in passenger traffic in 2009, down by about 6%, Russian national carrier Aeroflot recorded a buoyant increase in the number of passengers for H110, up by over 32% y-o-y To more than 5.1mn travellers.

Transaero

After modest growth in passenger numbers of about 4% y-o-y in 2009, the airline Transaero recorded impressive growth in traffic of some 53% y-o-y in January-May 2010.

S7 Airlines

S7 Airlines carried 5.6mn passengers in 2009, which was a fall of about 5% from the previous year. Traffic on domestic flights came to 3.5mn customers.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Russia Tourism SWOT
- Russia Political SWOT
- Russia Economic SWOT
- Russia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2014
- Accommodation
- Table: Accommodation Data, 2006-2014 ('000, unless stated)
- Expenditure
- Table: Tourist Expenditure & Economic Impact, 2006-2014
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2006-2014
- Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2006-2014 ('000)
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014
- Table: Resident Departures By Destination Country, 2006-2014 ('000)
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Data & Forecasts, 2010 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
- Accommodation
- Accommodation Developments
- Gaming
- Infrastructure
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Russia's Security Risk
- Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
- Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Company Profiles
- Aeroflot
- S7 Airlines
- Transaero
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting of Components
- Sources

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