Hong Kong Shipping Report Q1 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

The Port of Hong Kong registered a 14.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in container throughput to 13.4mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in January-July 2010 period, reported Port News. Our forecast for box traffic growth across the year as a whole is for a lower 11.1%. Container traffic at the port's largest terminal, Kwai Tsing, rose by 16.9% y-o-y to 9.83mn TEUs. The Port of Hong Kong is on the north coast of the South China Sea and handles more than 85% of the country's total cargo throughput. The port has 24 berths with a total quay line of 7,694m. The high volume of throughput from 2002 to 2007 puts the Port of Hong Kong third out of the 100 busiest ports worldwide, according to Cargo Systems, which lists the number of TEUs global ports handle.

Going into 2011 BMI sees a general slowdown in Hong Kong's economic growth rates, which will have a knock-on effect on the shipping and ports industry. We believe there are both internal and external causes of the slowdown. Internally, we believe that an unsustainable property price bubble has developed, meaning that there will be a real estate price correction during 2011. Inevitably, this will have an impact on consumer spending by local households. Externally, Hong Kong is a strongly export-oriented economy, and we expect lower demand from its two most important markets, China and the US. In both these key economies BMI expects lower growth and lower demand for imports during the course of the year. Taking these factors into account, BMI sees Hong Kong's GDP growth slowing to 1.5% in 2011, picking up moderately after that with 3.0% expansion in 2012. In the five years to 2015, growth will average 3.3% per annum, below the rates achieved in the pre-2009 period.

After relatively strong growth in 2010 (we estimate it will reach +6.1% for the full calendar year) we are projecting that total tonnage handled through the port of Hong Kong will grow by a more subdued 3.2% in 2011, reaching 265.99mn tonnes.

Box traffic at Hong Kong fluctuated sharply with the global recession and recovery that played out in 2009 and 2010. The total number of containers handled plunged by 14.3% in 2009 to 20.983mn TEUs, but we estimate volumes will have recovered quite strongly with 11.1% growth to 23.305mn TEUs in 2010. Our 11.1% estimate for the whole year compares with a 14.3% actual growth registered in the first seven months. For 2011, in line with Hong Kong's more subdued trade and economic growth scenario, we are predicting traffic growth of 2.6% to 23.912mn TEUs.

Hong Kong's trade growth will moderate in 2011 as the global economy suffers something of a 'double dip' slowdown. The slowdown is partly offset by the fact that the Asian regional economy remains comparatively buoyant, and intra-Asian trade is growing. In real terms, Hong Kong's trade grew by an estimated 6.5% in 2010, but we see this easing back to 4.1% in 2011. Imports will grow faster in 2011 at 4.6%, while exports will advance by 3.7%. In nominal terms imports will rise by 6.5% to US$463bn, while exports will gain 5.6% to US$480bn.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/100657_hong_kong_shipping_rep ...

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Hong Kong Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Shipping Overview
- Dry Bulk Shipping Overview
- Liquid Bulk Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
- Port of Hong Kong
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Table: Major Port Data
- Table: Trade Overview
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Main Import Partners
- Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
- A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)

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